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Constitution Hill has been handed an official Flat rating of 101 by the BHA handicapper following his second all-weather success at Kempton recently.
The eight-time Grade 1-winning hurdler has actually switched flawlessly to the Flat this year in two 1m4f newbie races on the all-weather.
On his debut at Southwell in February, the nine-year-old scored by 9 and a half lengths under Oisin Murphy and followed up with a two-length success at Kempton last Wednesday with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
BHA handicapper Adam Barnes stated: "Constitution Hill has actually been rated 101, which is a high figure for a horse coming out of beginners. Potentially, it might turn out to be rather a lenient figure for a horse like him with the capability we understand he's obtained from the jumps.
"He was such a classy hurdler and keeps lots of that capability. It will be fascinating to see how high he can go in the Flat sphere."
Trainer Nicky Henderson and owner Michael Buckley were eager for another run at Kempton to get a handicap mark for Constitution Hill as they ponder future targets. The idea has actually been the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury on April 18 - likewise over a mile and a half - could be a suitable next race.
After Kempton, Moore suggested that distance suits, stating: "I think he's really comfortable at 12 [furlongs]"
Major handicaps such as the Ebor at York in August, for which Constitution Hill is 12-1 favourite with sponsors Sky Bet, and the Melbourne Cup in November have actually been promoted as potential targets in the future.
Speaking on the BHA podcast, Barnes added: "Connections have actually discussed the John Porter as the next target, which is a pretty well-established Group 3. Generally speaking, you 'd want to be going to around 110-plus to get truly included in a race like that.
"I saw William Haggas discuss that horses like Hamish or Al Aasy could go there and they're 117 and 115 horses, so that offers you an idea of the level Constitution Hill will need to be at to win a race like that. Whether he wins or not, they'll have lots of choices, be they in Group races or good handicaps, in the season ahead."
In his Racing Post steady tour in Tuesday's edition, Karl Burke stated he was also thinking about the John Porter for last year's French Group 2 winner Convergent.
The four-year-old colt, who has a main score of 116, was a three-and-a-half-length third behind subsequent Derby winner Lambourn in the Chester Vase and was also a close 2nd in the German Derby.
Hamish was rated 117 when winning the Newbury contest 2 years earlier, while in 2015 Divina Grace won it off 100, although she had a 4lb mares' allowance.
Following his Kempton victory, William Hill made Constitution Hill an even-money possibility to win a Group race on the Flat this year, which would consist of the John Porter, and 12-1 to land a Group 1. There is currently no market for the John Porter, entries for which close on April 13.
Constitution Hill has been assigned the same 101 figure as tested staying handicappers such as Beylerbeyi, Stressfree and Paddy The Squire.
The six-year-old Beylerbeyi has that mark after winning in 2015's Cesarewitch, while the year-younger Stressfree has run consistently in Class 2 handicaps between a mile and a quarter and a mile and six furlongs for the last 2 seasons.
Paddy The Squire, also aged 6, has arguably a more progressive profile having had fewer starts. He won 3 of his 6 races in 2015, rounding off his season with a fifth (Stressfree in 3rd) in Haydock's Old Borough Cup
Analysis: 101 all but books Ebor place for Constitution Hill
Constitution Hill's opening Flat mark of 101 is high for a first score, if not distinctively so. You would routinely have actually horses ranked greater making their handicap launching in the Free Handicap, which was run for the last time in 2022.
More to the point, Constitution Hill has probably booked his ticket to the Ebor if connections choose that path. In the last two years, the flooring on that race has actually been a BHA mark of 95 and 90, and in the last decade only two times would 101 not have been enough.
As it stands, he requires to improve a fair bit to win that race. Constitution Hill's Racing Post Rating of 103 is simply 2lb higher than his BHA mark. In 2025, running 2lb higher than your BHA figure would have won just 1.3 percent of Class 2 handicaps.
Constitution Hill needs to run once more on the Flat before he is qualified for any heritage handicap. That certifying run seems likely to be in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury.
Finishing close up in that race might hurt his Ebor chances. The BHA standard on the John Porter would put even a third-placed finisher someplace around the 110 mark in an average year. So even to end up where the market would likely expect at Newbury would ask for significant enhancement from Constitution Hill.
If that race does not go to plan, the consolation would be his connections having four months to get him prepared. He would likewise have a mark that, while stiff on the face of it, would be extremely tempting on the basis of his form.
Keith Melrose, wagering editor
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