Which Team Will That Be?
Aces WNBA Finals Game 1 Prediction & Best Choices (10/3): Who Will Strike First in Vegas?
The very first two rounds of the 2025 WNBA playoffs have been a real reward. Now, just 2 teams stay. Tonight, the very first of a historic matchup pitting the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces begins at Michelob Ultra Arena (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN).
It is a historic match, as it is the very first best-of-seven WNBA Finals in the league's history. It began with a single championship game in the league's inaugural season in 1997, broadened to a best-of-three series from 1998 to 2004, and was a best-of-five series for the past 20 seasons.
Now, the WNBA is on par with the NBA and NHL as having a seven-game champion series. And what a time for its inception, as the quality of basketball in the regular season and in the postseason has been remarkable.
The Mercury and Aces have been a big part of that, and both groups have actually earned their location in the champion series.
After winning 27 games in the routine season, Phoenix eliminated last year's finalists, the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, to reach the WNBA Finals for the very first time given that 2021 and the 6th time total.
The Aces, on the other hand, were mired in mediocrity for two and a half months, and the playoffs were not a certainty. But not only did they make the playoffs, they made it in as the No. 2 seed, and after making it through being required to limit by the Seattle Storm and Indiana Fever, are looking to liquidate a rip-roaring run with a third championship in 4 seasons.
Who will take a 1-0 lead tonight in Las Vegas? Read on for our Mercury vs. Aces Game 1 forecast and best options and get the best value odds from top online sportsbooks such as BetOnline.
Mercury vs. Aces Betting Trends
- The Mercury are 9-9 SU and 10-8 ATS as an underdog this season, consisting of 6-6 SU and ATS as a roadway underdog.
- Phoenix is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS this season when an underdog of 5 or fewer points.
- The under is 13-10-2 in the Mercury's road games this season.
- The under has actually hit in Phoenix's last 3 video games.
- Las Vegas is 10-6 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season when favored by 5 or less points.
- The under is 7-3 in the Aces' last ten home games, including 3 of their five home video games in the playoffs.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Best Options
Prediction: Aces to win
In the first two rounds and 6 series in this year's playoffs, four groups lost Game 1 and went on to win the series.
Two of those belong to the Mercury, who decreased 1-0 against both the Liberty and Lynx and returned to advance. Another comes from the Aces, who advanced after losing the opener to the Fever.
So, whoever loses tonight shouldn't be too discouraged, particularly with the growth to a seven-game series.
Which group will that be?
Despite lastly putting away the Fever after being pushed to the absolute limit by an inspired Indiana team, the Aces did show some vulnerabilities in the semifinals.
A'ja Wilson (26.0 PPG) and Jackie Young (20.5 PPG) are balling out in the playoffs, however they need help if the Aces are to be effective vs. the Mercury in this series.
And as hard as the Fever were to put away, the Mercury will be even more tough to dispatch. In the last three video games against the Lynx, Phoenix outscored Minnesota 87-43 in the fourth quarter and overtime, allowing them to get rid of deficits in all 3 games to stun the No. 1 seed.
That stated, the very first four Mercury vs. Aces matches this season do merit some consideration. Phoenix won the first one at Michelob Ultra Arena on June 15, when Wilson was out due to a concussion. But the Aces won the last 3, including an 83-61 thrashing in the most recent conference on August 21.
But after such a hard-fought series versus the Fever, might the Aces struggle tonight vs. the Mercury much like they did in Game 1 vs. Indiana after a draining pipes Game 3 win over the Seattle Storm.
It is possible, but I'm taking them to increase to the celebration tonight.
Mercury vs. Aces Best Bets
1) Aces -3 (-117 at BetOnline)
I do believe we will see a fairly close game this evening, but if you are backing the Aces, the a cover.
Through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, just four of 20 video games were chosen by three or fewer points. And of the Aces' 37 wins this season, only 6 have been by three or less points.
So, if they do win, it will likely be by at least the margin needed to cover the spread.
2) Jackie Young Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-115 at Bovada) 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+105 at Bovada)
For Game 5 vs. the Fever, I backed Young to go over 16.5 points and over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists. She did both by some distance, scoring 32 points and adding a cent of cents and four rebounds.
While her points amount to is a tick lower tonight, the total PRA is a couple of ticks higher, which is not a surprise when Young has recorded 19 helps in her last 2 video games.
I'm off of her points tonight, but I enjoy to stick to her PRA, as the Aces require her to keep rolling to endure vs. the Mercury. I might see a 15-point, nine-assist, five-rebound game from her.
Young has scored 16+ points 29 times (in 52 games) this season, including six times in eight championship game, but she has yet to score 16+ points in four consecutive games this season. So, I see boards and assists doing some heavy lifting tonight.
3) Alyssa Thomas Over 16.5 Points (+110 at Bovada)
Thomas's high for points vs. the Aces this season is 17, which she hit when the Mercury lost by 22 in Vegas in August.
But she has actually scored 17+ points in each of her last five video games, including consecutive 20+ point video games to go ahead of and liquidate the Lynx at home. At these odds, I'm all too happy to take her to keep it going.
4) Satou Sabally to Score 20+ Points (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
Making the most of worth is also at the leading edge of this play. Sabally has actually done this twice against the Aces this season, scoring 22 points in the June win at Michelob Ultra Arena and 26 in an 86-83 loss at PHX Arena on August 15.
She also scored 20+ in each of the Mercury's 3 wins over the Lynx and installed 23 in the Game 3 win over the Liberty in the preliminary. With this and the truth that she has had 5+ rebounds in six of 7 playoff video games hence far both in mind, the over 23.5 for her points + rebounds (which is +105 at Bovada) is also worth a look.
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